01
THE CUSTOMER BET
Who exactly is paying, and why this week?
Most models hide behind a persona. Atomic Bets forces a single named buyer, a single trigger, and a single alternative they almost chose instead.
Free online tool · No signup · PDF exportATOMIC
ATOMIC
BETS.
Every business model is a stack of 7 bets. Fill the free worksheet below, score your confidence and fatality, and download a clean PDF in one click. No account. No email. No upload — your answers never leave your browser.
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WHY ATOMIC?
Most business-model tools (canvases, lean templates, OKRs) treat a model as a single object you tweak. That's why nothing ever breaks — and why nothing ever truly improves.
Atomic Bets does the opposite. We split the model into 7 independent assumptions, each one small enough to be wrong on its own and big enough to kill the business if it is. You can attack one bet on a Tuesday afternoon without touching the other six.
If a bet survives a deliberate attack, it earns its place in v2 of the model. If it doesn't, it dies on a Friday — quietly, on paper, before a competitor does it loudly, in market.
THE SEVEN BETS
one model · seven attack surfaces02
THE PROBLEM BET
Is this a hair-on-fire problem or a nice-to-have?
Rank the pain on a 1–10 willingness-to-pay scale per segment. Anything under 7 is a feature, not a business.
03
THE PRICING BET
Why this number and not 3x or 1/3 of it?
Replace cost-plus theatre with a willingness-to-pay sprint. The price you defend in front of 10 buyers is the only one that counts.
04
THE DISTRIBUTION BET
What's the one channel that compounds?
Every founder names five channels. Pick the one with falling CAC over time. The other four are a tax on focus.
05
THE MOAT BET
What stops a smarter team with more money?
Brand, data, network, switching cost, regulation. If you can't name yours in 6 words, you don't have one — you have a head start.
06
THE MARGIN BET
Where does the next euro of revenue actually go?
Map the unit economics down to the cent. If gross margin is below 60% and you're calling yourself software, the model is lying to you.
07
THE TIMING BET
Why now, and not 3 years ago or 3 years from now?
Every category has a window. Name the shift (regulatory, technological, cultural) that opened yours. No shift, no window, no business.
HOW TO RUN IT.
A 90-minute solo version of what we do in 3 days. No facilitator, no slack, no excuses.
- STEP 01WRITE
On a single page, state each of the 7 bets as one declarative sentence. No hedging, no 'and / or'.
- STEP 02ATTACK
For each bet, write the one piece of evidence that would prove it wrong. If you can't think of one, the bet is too vague.
- STEP 03RANK
Score each bet 1–5 on (a) how confident you are and (b) how fatal it is if wrong. Work the high-fatal / low-confidence ones first.
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RUN IT NOW.
Fill the 7 bets, score them, and export a polished PDF — all free, all in your browser. We never see your answers: no account, no email, no upload, no tracking. Autosaves to this device so you can come back later.
0 / 7 bets stated
THE CUSTOMER BET
Who exactly is paying, and why this week?
Confidence (1 low → 5 high)
Fatality if wrong (1 low → 5 high)
THE PROBLEM BET
Is this a hair-on-fire problem or a nice-to-have?
Confidence (1 low → 5 high)
Fatality if wrong (1 low → 5 high)
THE PRICING BET
Why this number and not 3x or 1/3 of it?
Confidence (1 low → 5 high)
Fatality if wrong (1 low → 5 high)
THE DISTRIBUTION BET
What's the one channel that compounds?
Confidence (1 low → 5 high)
Fatality if wrong (1 low → 5 high)
THE MOAT BET
What stops a smarter team with more money?
Confidence (1 low → 5 high)
Fatality if wrong (1 low → 5 high)
THE MARGIN BET
Where does the next euro of revenue actually go?
Confidence (1 low → 5 high)
Fatality if wrong (1 low → 5 high)
THE TIMING BET
Why now, and not 3 years ago or 3 years from now?
Confidence (1 low → 5 high)
Fatality if wrong (1 low → 5 high)
CITE THIS.
Atomic Bets is free to use and reference. If you teach it, write about it, or remix it, point back here so others can find the source.
PLAIN TEXT
DISTURBFIRST. "Atomic Bets: A Framework for Self-Disrupting Your Business Model." 2026. https://disturbfirst.com/atomic-bets
MARKDOWN
[Atomic Bets](https://disturbfirst.com/atomic-bets) — a framework by DISTURBFIRST.